УДК 53 Физика
УДК 520 Инструменты, приборы и методы астрономических наблюдений, измерений и анализа
УДК 521 Теоретическая астрономия. Небесная механика. Фундаментальная астрономия. Теория динамической и позиционной астрономии
УДК 523 Солнечная система
УДК 524 Звезды и звездные системы. Вселенная Солнце и Солнечная система
УДК 52-1 Метод изучения
УДК 52-6 Излучение и связанные с ним процессы
ГРНТИ 41.00 АСТРОНОМИЯ
ГРНТИ 29.35 Радиофизика. Физические основы электроники
ГРНТИ 29.31 Оптика
ГРНТИ 29.33 Лазерная физика
ГРНТИ 29.27 Физика плазмы
ГРНТИ 29.05 Физика элементарных частиц. Теория полей. Физика высоких энергий
ОКСО 03.06.01 Физика и астрономия
ОКСО 03.05.01 Астрономия
ОКСО 03.04.03 Радиофизика
ББК 2 ЕСТЕСТВЕННЫЕ НАУКИ
ББК 223 Физика
ТБК 614 Астрономия
ТБК 6135 Оптика
BISAC SCI004000 Astronomy
BISAC SCI005000 Physics / Astrophysics
The purpose of the work performed was to search for parameters of longitudinal magnetic field gradients and vertical electric currents, and their values, which could serve as the basis for creating criteria for short-term forecasting of changes in the flare productivity of an active region (AR). In the course of the study, a threshold (critical) value of the average unsigned vertical electric current density ($<|j_z|>$) was identified, equal to 2.7 mA m$^{-2}$; it is shown that in all ARs with high flare activity, the value of $<|j_z|>$ is above the threshold; it is shown that a rapid increase in the parameter $<|j_z|>$ above the critical value, especially in ARs, in which additional ascent of the magnetic flux was recorded during their monitoring time, indicates an increase in AR flare activity in the time interval of 18-20 hours. A threshold value of the transverse component of the longitudinal magnetic field gradient between pairs of sunspots in the AR ($max(\nabla_{\perp}B_z)_{sp}$), equal to 0.118 G km$^{-1}$, was also found. In the AR NOAA 11283, a study of the dynamics of the value made it possible to detect a time delay of 19 hours between the beginning of its stable growth and the time of the beginning of the development of the first of a series of powerful solar flares.
Sun: activity, flares, magnetic fields, electric currents
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